The EveryDistrict Nationwide State Competitiveness Map provides a roadmap for how Democrats start rebuilding power at the state level. With this map, you’ll be able to find the competitive legislative districts in your community that hold the key to winning power back for Democrats.
In Virginia in 2017, Democrats rallied around the “Hillary 17” – 17 winnable districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that were held by Republicans at the state legislative level. Now, using this map, we can organize in every competitive state legislative district in the country.
So, check out the Senate and House maps by clicking on a state, and read more below to understand how these maps work. To get the most out of the map, click on a district to learn more!
What is EveryDistrict’s approach to evaluating districts?
We evaluated the results of statewide elections in every state legislative district to determine a Legislative District Index (LDI) score. This score represents the average vote in a representative statewide race within that district. We pull out any big blowouts that might skew the results. A score of 100 means that statewide Democrats average 100% of the vote and a -100 means that Republicans average 100% of the vote. For a more realistic example, a district with a score of -2 votes for Republicans in statewide elections by about a 2% margin on average.
Based on that score, we assign an incumbent ranking and a color to each district.
What do the colors mean?
Dark Blue – This receives a ranking of “D-Safe.” It is held by a Democrat and leans Democratic in its LDI. In the current political environment, we would expect to hold these seats.
Light Blue – This receives a ranking of “D-Leans R.” It is held by a Democrat but leans Republican in its LDI. These are the seats Democrats will need to do the most to defend.
Yellow – This receives a ranking of “R-Leans D.” It is held by a Republican but leans Democratic in its LDI. These are the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.
Pink – This receives a ranking of “R-Leans R.” It is held by a Republican and leans Republican in its LDI. It has an LDI score between 0 and -5. These are strong pickup opportunities for Democrats in the current political environment.
Red – This receives a ranking of “R-Safe.” It is held by a Republican and has an LDI score of less than -5.
Why do the Republican pickup opportunities stop at R+5 when there have been Democratic wins in more conservative seats?
In 2006, Democrats had a 6 point advantage when they took back the House of Representatives. We think that sort of swing is a reasonable place to start. Stay tuned for updated information as we release new LDI scores in spring 2019 that incorporate the 2018 election results.
I think that district result is wrong.
Send us a note at firstname.lastname@example.org and we’ll correct it. We’re trying to track 6,764 state legislative districts and 7,383 state legislators, so it’s quite possible we made a mistake! We are currently in the process of updating our maps with 2018 election results; each map will say whether or not the results have been updated.
Will you update your scores with 2018 information?
Yes. Updated LDI scores incorporating the 2018 election results will be released in spring 2019. To be the first to know when our new scores go live, you can sign up for our email list here.
2018 was the first major test for the LDI. In the beginning of 2019, we’ll be assessing how well our LDI performed in 2018 and what additional information we can add to improve the LDI’s predictive power in 2019, 2020, and beyond.
This is cool. What do I do now?
We raise money to support candidates in districts we’ve identified as likely Democratic pick up opportunities. You can donate to support our efforts.
What comes next?
We need you to become a fundraising champion to support state legislative candidates in winnable districts across the country. We’re actively fundraising for candidates on the ballot in 2019, and we need your help!
Becoming a fundraising champion is not about being a big donor. It’s about donating at a level you’re comfortable with and then organizing your friends to do the same. You can learn more, and sign up to become a fundraising champion, here.