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Arizona House

Arizona House

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Arizona Senate / Arizona House

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2020 Chamber Ranking: Lean Republican

Republicans currently control the Arizona State House 31-29. Democrats need to flip two seats to take control of the chamber.

In 2020, all State House districts will be on the ballot. EveryDistrict has identified seven competitive seats (with three districts with two seats per district) that Democrats can compete in to win the majority.

With the right investment, Democrats can flip the Arizona State House in 2020. To learn how you can get involved to support state legislative candidates on the ballot in Arizona in 2020, sign up for EveryDistrict’s email list.

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Arizona election results; click here to view all 2018 election results.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Arizona State House 25-35. In the 2018 election, Democrats gain four seats; Republicans maintained control 31-29. EveryDistrict endorsed successful Democratic challenger Jennifer Jermaine (HD 18). Democrats also flipped the following three districts: HD 10, HD 17, and HD 28.

EveryDistrict identified four other districts as competitive; EveryDistrict endorsed Felicia French (HD 6) and Hollace Lyon (HD 11). The other two districts were HD 8 and HD 20.

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) is the gold standard of state legislative competitiveness. Our LDI ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

After the 2018 election, EveryDistrict reviewed and enhanced our LDI system, improving the accuracy of the metric with new methodologies and the most recent electoral data.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.