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Florida Senate / Florida House

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2020 Update

Republicans control the Florida State Senate 73-47. Democrats need to flip 14 seats to flip the chamber, and they have a narrow path to doing so in 2020.

District LDI Ranking
HD 26 6 R-Lean D
HD 67 -3 R-Lean R
HD 105 -3 R-Lean R
HD 115 -3 R-Lean R
HD 93 -5 R-Lean R
HD 21 -6 R-Favor R
HD 36 -6 R-Favor R
HD 119 -6 R-Favor R
HD 27 -7 R-Favor R
HD 83 -7 R-Favor R
HD 89 -7 R-Favor R
HD 53 -8 R-Favor R
HD 42 -9 R-Favor R
HD 85 -10 R-Favor R

 

Democrats have an opportunity to flip the Florida State House in 2020. To learn how you can get involved to support state legislative candidates on the ballot in Florida in 2020, sign up for EveryDistrict’s email list.

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Florida election results; click here for all 2018 election results.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Florida State House 79-41. Democrats gained one seat after winning a special election in February 2018.

Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans controlled the chamber 75-41 with four vacancies (one in a Democratic-held seat and three in Republican-held seats). Democrats flipped seven Republican-held seats and lost two Democratic-held seats for a five-seat gain. Republicans now control the chamber 73-47.

EveryDistrict endorsed successful Democratic challengers Joy Goff-Marcil (HD 30), Anna Eskamani (HD 47), and Jennifer Webb (HD 69). Democrats also won HD 44, HD 59, HD 63, and HD 103. Democrats lost HD 26 and HD 118.

EveryDistrict identified 14 other competitive districts and endorsed Democratic challengers in five of those districts: Jason Haeseler (HD 21),  Linda Jack (HD 36), Barbara Cady (HD 42), Javier Estevez (HD 105), and Jeffrey Solomon (HD 115).

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) is the gold standard of state legislative competitiveness. Our LDI ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

After the 2018 election, EveryDistrict reviewed and enhanced our LDI system, improving the accuracy of the metric with new methodologies and the most recent electoral data.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.