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Michigan House

Michigan House

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Michigan Senate / Michigan House

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2020 Chamber Ranking: Lean Democratic

Republicans currently control the Michigan State House 58-52. Democrats need to flip four seats to take control of the chamber.

In 2020, all Michigan House districts will be on the ballot. EveryDistrict’s data analysis has identified four competitive districts that Democrats must flip to win the majority, plus eight seats that favor Republicans that Democrats can compete in to win a large majority.

Democrats are in a strong position to flip the Michigan State House in 2020. To learn how you can get involved to support state legislative candidates on the ballot in Michigan in 2020, sign up for EveryDistrict’s email list.

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Michigan election results; click here for all 2018 election results.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Michigan State House 63-47. In the 2018 election, Democrats picked up six seats, and lost one, to cut the Republican majority to 58-52.

EveryDistrict endorsed three of the six successful Democratic challengers: Matt Koleszar (HD 20), Mari Manoogian (HD 40), and Angela Witwer (HD 71). Democrats also won HD 62, HD 19, and HD 41. Democrats lost HD 110.

EveryDistrict also endorsed candidates in the following two districts: Michelle LaVoy (HD 17) and Dan O’Neil (HD 104).

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) is the gold standard of state legislative competitiveness. Our LDI ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

After the 2018 election, EveryDistrict reviewed and enhanced our LDI system, improving the accuracy of the metric with new methodologies and the most recent electoral data.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.