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Ohio Senate

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Ohio House / Ohio Senate

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2020 Update

Republicans currently control the Ohio State Senate 24-9. Democrats need to flip eight seats to win back the chamber.

In 2020, only the even-numbered districts will be on the ballot. EveryDistrict’s data analysis has identified three districts where Democrats can compete to grow their numbers in the legislature and be in a position to flip the chamber in 2022.

District LDI Ranking
SD 16 2 R-Lean D
SD 24 1 R-Lean D
SD 2 -6 R-Favor R

 

With the right investment, Democrats can grow their numbers in the Ohio legislature. To learn how you can get involved to support state legislative candidates on the ballot in Ohio in 2020, sign up for EveryDistrict’s email list.

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Ohio election results; click here for all 2018 election results.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Ohio State Senate 24-9. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans controlled the chamber 23-9 with one vacancy in a Republican-held seat. In the 2018 election, Democrats gained one seat and lost one seat, resulting in no change in the partisan composition of the Ohio State Senate.

Democrats flipped SD 3 and lost SD 33. EveryDistrict identified four other seats on the ballot as competitive and endorsed candidates in those four districts: Paul Bradley (SD 5), Sharon Sweda (SD 13), Louise Valentine (SD 19), and Lauren Friedman (SD 29).

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) is the gold standard of state legislative competitiveness. Our LDI ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

After the 2018 election, EveryDistrict reviewed and enhanced our LDI system, improving the accuracy of the metric with new methodologies and the most recent electoral data.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.