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Pennsylvania House

Pennsylvania House

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Pennsylvania Senate / Pennsylvania House

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2020 Update

Republicans currently control the Pennsylvania State House 110-93. Democrats need to flip nine seats to take control of the chamber.

In 2020, all Pennsylvania House districts will be on the ballot. EveryDistrict’s data analysis has identified nine districts that lean Democratic and four districts that lean slightly Republican that Democrats can compete in for the majority.

District LDI Ranking
HD 170 16 R-Lean D
HD 18 14 R-Lean D
HD 152 9 R-Lean D
HD 120 9 R-Lean D
HD 151 6 R-Lean D
HD 49 4 R-Lean D
HD 189 3 R-Lean D
HD 176 0 R-Lean D
HD 142 0 R-Lean D
HD 168 -1 R-Lean R
HD 71 -3 R-Lean R
HD 48 -4 R-Lean R
HD 160 -4 R-Lean R

 

Democrats are in a strong position to flip the Pennsylvania State House in 2020. To learn how you can get involved to support state legislative candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania in 2020, sign up for EveryDistrict’s email list.

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Pennsylvania election results; click here for all 2018 election results.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Pennsylvania State House 121-82. In 2018 special elections, Democrats picked up a Republican-held seat (HD 178) and Republicans picked up a Democratic-held seat (HD 48).

Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans controlled the chamber 120-79 with four vacancies. Democrats flipped 14 Republican-held seats and lost three Democratic-held seats for a net gain of 11 seats. Republicans now control the chamber 110-93.

EveryDistrict endorsed nine successful Democratic challengers: Steve Malagari (HD 53), Liz Hanbidge (HD 61), Joe Ciresi (HD 146), Joseph Webster (HD 150), Danielle Otten (HD 155), Melissa Shusterman (HD 157), Christina Sappey (HD 158), Mike Zabel (HD 163), and Jennifer O’Mara (HD 165). Democrats also flipped HD 74, HD 143, HD 162, and HD 167. Democrats lost HD 48, HD 71, HD 76, and HD 178.

EveryDistrict also endorsed: Byron Timmins (HD 46), Mary Popovich (HD 58), Patty Smith (HD 104), Kara Scott (HD 122), Amy Cozze (HD 137), Lauren Lareau (HD 142), Sara Johnson Rothman (HD 151), Kristin Seale (HD 168), Mike Doyle (HD 170), Claudette Williams (HD 176), and Adam Rodriguez (HD 189).

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) is the gold standard of state legislative competitiveness. Our LDI ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

After the 2018 election, EveryDistrict reviewed and enhanced our LDI system, improving the accuracy of the metric with new methodologies and the most recent electoral data.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.