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Pennsylvania Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

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Pennsylvania House / Pennsylvania Senate

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2019 Election Update

EveryDistrict has endorsed Pam Iovino for the special election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 37 (LDI: -8) on April 2, 2019; Iovino won her race 52% to 48% and is the first R-to-D flip of 2019. Democrats now need to flip four seats to take control of the chamber in 2020.

2018 Election Update

After the 2016 election, Republicans controlled the Pennsylvania State Senate 34-16. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans controlled the chamber 33-16 with one vacancy in a Republican-held seat.

In the 2018 election, Democrats flipped five seats. Republicans now control the chamber 29-21.

Democrats flipped SD 10 (LDI: -1), SD 12 (LDI: 1), SD 26 (LDI: 10), SD 38 (LDI: -2), and SD 44 (LDI: -4).

Click here for a spreadsheet of LDI scores and 2018 Pennsylvania election results; click here for all 2018 election results.

Understanding the Map

EveryDistrict’s Legislative District Index (LDI) ranks state legislative districts on a scale from 100 to -100, using statewide elections data. Districts with a score of 100 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Democratic candidate receiving 100% of the vote); districts with a score of -100 would vote for statewide Republican candidates by an average of 100 points (with the Republican candidate receiving 100% of the vote). For a more realistic example, a district with a score of 10 would vote for statewide Democratic candidates by an average of 10 points (meaning we would expect the Democratic state legislative candidate to win with 55% of the vote compared to the Republican winning 45% of the vote).

EveryDistrict divides winnable districts into five categories. Dark blue districts lean Democratic and are held by a Democratic legislator. Light blue districts lean Republican and are held by a Democratic legislator. Yellow districts lean Democratic but are held by a Republican legislator; these districts represent the best pick up opportunities for Democrats. Pink districts lean slightly Republican, with a range of 0 up to -5; in the current political climate we’ve identified these districts as pick up opportunities for Democrats. Dark red districts are held by a Republican and have an LDI score of less than -5.

For more information about EveryDistrict’s LDI, please click here.

Updated LDI scores incorporating the 2018 election results will be released in spring 2019.